I'm not a doctor and I don't deal with epidemics. I am unable to express myself on those but I invite everyone to follow the indications provided by the government. I deal with companies and my job is to help the largest number of entrepreneurs, besides myself, to ensure the survival of their businesses.
Some additional data that came to me from the hotel sector as a consequence of the rapid evolution of the Corona Virus in Europe and the United States (which, I honestly thought, would have been able to stop) led me to reconsider the impacts that this crisis will have on our economy and on the Italian companies. I don't know what the evolution of the disease is like, I trust what the government says, but on an economic level I know what is going on within companies. Some facts:
1) The hotel sector in Northern Italy for the month of April registers reservations at 5% compared to last year and this makes us assume that the tourism crisis could last not only for the whole month of April but also for a part of the month of May. According to an interview with Maurizio Naro of Federalberghi Milano, 90% of Milan's hotels are closed. Not only that: as long as Italy remains on the list of countries not to visit in the United States of America, most international tour operators will not bring people to Italy. In this case, in fact, the insurance companies do not pay for travelers' problems.
2) The stock market that made -15% today should not have hit bottom yet. In my experience, FEAR is still missing, that irrepressible desire to go to the bank to withdraw all the money (typical of all the great crises that are respected). For fear to start there must be a failure of one or two major companies, for example Boeing sailing in very bad waters, or Ryanair or American Airlines. With such a failure, PANIC would start and usually, after a week / ten days of very strong fear, things generally start to stabilize. We have not achieved this yet, but there is still room for another descent.
3) Imagine now that Italy overcomes the problem of infections in three weeks, as it is hoped, then in early April we start to return to normal and during the month of April businesses start again and only do (to say) minus 50%. This was my original idea. What I haven't considered is that unless a vaccine is developed, the virus will start doing heavy damage in Germany, Spain (it has already started), France, England in three weeks. Our GDP at 30% depends on exports to European countries which, instead, in three weeks will begin to collapse and therefore, even if we managed to beat the infections (and we must try in every way) and we began to recover internally however, we would lose a good part of export turnover. An ugly, but decidedly realistic scene.
It follows that I find myself forced to update my forecasts and recommendations for Italian SMEs: begin to think that after this three-week standstill period (some more, some less) you will have to deal with a large part of missing turnover up to end of August or even September 2020 for five months. It is as if, on the fateful date of April 3rd, we will all find ourselves healthy (we really hope so) having to cross the Sahara desert on foot. You will need LOTS of water and every drop of water possible will make a BIG difference. I therefore advise you to review your stress tests referring to a scene like this. Obviously you can also defeat it if, immediately, you start marketing, offers, retaining customers so that at the restart you are ready to run and recover water. This is why we will help you do with the free training and coaching program of OSM & Friends on the MBS - Mind Business School group. But if you don't want to perish in the desert, you too will have to put in a lot of effort.
4) While points 1-3 represent for me an almost certainty (unless the vaccine is discovered) the situation of the Italian state is instead a question mark. Shoud it be understood that I expect the Government, albeit late, to publish the decree as soon as possible with aid to businesses (and therefore the possibility of IGC, payment by installments of tax, economic aid, etc. EXCELLENT THINGS, VERY NECESSARY), the question to which I can't give myself an answer yet is WHERE all the resources for these integration boxes will come from? In the month of March, 50-60% of the Italian workforce will not work. That's a lot of money. And, as we have seen before, it is only the beginning. Our public finances will be subjected to a strong solicitation and may end up speculating as has happened before. Unless the European Union pulls a cylinder out of its hat, there will be a risk ahead of a very heavy financial move. This road honestly now I don't know where it will end. Based on points 1-4, my only certainty today as today is this: NOTHING WILL RETURN AS BEFORE. Even in the most optimistic scenario, each of us will have to reinvent himself, he will have to change some of his attitudes and habits strongly. Our country will initially lose (you know that I am an optimist, so I believe that by working well it will be possible to recover it), a part of its wealth and therefore some pointers that have helped me overcome previous crises are indicative:
a. Stop talking about governments and what they should do to help you. When you are in the middle of the desert you cannot afford to complain about the Bedouins who do not lend you their water. You MUST SURVIVE! Thinking about what governments should do doesn't help you grow your business and recover water (unless you're in a position to influence what they decide on parliamentary committees, which is very unlikely).
b. If you do, stop looking at the stock exchanges or the markets. You cannot do anything to make the spread or the stock market rise or fall. If you have investments, for Diana, follow them but know that if you are inside this blender today, in most cases for a while you will take loud blows. Sandstorms when you're in the desert distract you and make you lose focus. You do not have to go looking for them but you must STAY FOCUSED ON THE OBJECTIVE which is to get to the first oasis. Although it may seem paradoxical, it can sometimes help to think that you have lost everything. WHAT IS YOUR PLAN B?
c. Realize that, even if crazy and tragic, this IS THE NEW NORMALITY, that is for a while we will be working in fits and starts and MUCH OF THE BUSINESS THAT IN THE PREVIOUSLY WE HAD DISCOUNTED IT WILL NOT COME BACK. Believe me, inside me, I wake up in the morning and say to myself "jeez let's hope it's all a dream and that everything will come back as before ..." and instead no. My almost 18 million turnover I HAVE TO RECONQUER, one at a time starting from when I leave the house. So how do I do it? How should I engineer myself? What product should I make? What will go after the health crisis? How will I contact customers? And, above all, in a moment of falling turnover and feeling of falling wealth, how will I have to modify my products and services so that they are a proposal of such a value that NO CUSTOMER, even if I have little money, can to say no?
d. Think about the water: you must have it to get to the end of August or, better yet, in late September. If you miss it, start thinking NOW how you will recover it: work on personnel costs, cut things to a minimum, defer investments that do not have an immediate return over time, start promoting and thinking how to generate the liquidity you lack today, build an e-commerce, find new customers and new niches and, as my friend Francesco Cardone says, make shock offers to customers, of such a value that they can only buy. Don't think anyone will come to your aid. It is sad to say it but we are alone. Although it may seem paradoxical, it can sometimes help to think that you have lost everything. WHAT IS YOUR PLAN B?
e. As in any battle for survival, remember to behave with honor: do not send invoices back to suppliers if you cannot pay them but elaborate win win solutions with them, try to involve your collaborators in generating value by creating economic incentive paths and not limit yourself to cut them, continue to study and grow yourself but, while doing all this, start to rethink all the financial paradigms on which you based your company and your existence. We lived in a world that was drugged, with many people in the comfort zone, where charismatic leaders were missing and a lot of modified influence was enough to break down almost all of our system. Although it is not pleasant, perhaps we all needed such a shock. The fact is that in early April (or as soon as the heat helps us to eradicate this virus) we will all find ourselves healthy but with the desert in front of us. Going through it will be a real struggle. Some will not make it or, afraid of leaving the comfort zone, they will think of stopping in the shadow of a rock hoping that someone will come to save them.
I and OSM and his friends will try to bring 10,000 businesses to the other side. And when we are on the other side of the desert, our recovery will begin! Do not give up! We will help you in the crossing!
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